Global Chip Shortage Puts Pressure on Tech and Automotive Industries
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According to a report from Company E's official Weibo account, the three major A-share indexes have continued to rise with increasing trading volumes, and the combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 600 billion yuan. Starting last Friday, broker stocks have experienced a surge in daily price limits, and today, broker stocks continue to extend last Friday’s strength. Over the weekend, the debate about whether the market is experiencing a "reversal" or just a "rebound" has gone viral, and this topic has also been a focal point in broker analysts' morning meetings. Of course, the direct catalyst for the sharp rise in broker stocks is the impact of favorable policy support. Analysts believe that the overall rise in broker stocks is driven by policy benefits and the upward market trend. A series of new measures, including mergers and acquisitions, can bring incremental revenue to brokers, which directly enhances the market's attention to the brokerage sector. Meanwhile, the improving market also provides brokers with excess returns from the secondary market. According to BOC International, the draft consultation on the implementation rules for the Science and Technology Innovation Board will not only bring incremental contributions to brokers' investment banking and brokerage businesses but will also help drive the transformation and upgrading of large brokerage investment banking operations. In addition, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) continues to release favorable policies. Firstly, it has relaxed the equity risk capital preparation ratio for securities companies, reducing capital occupation. Secondly, it plans to allow external access to securities firms' trading systems, which would activate the market. Brokers will continue to enjoy strong policy support. Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that the core driver of the brokerage sector in 2019 is the continued advancement of capital market reform policies, which in turn will boost brokers' valuations. Assuming a neutral market environment, the growth rate of brokerage earnings will turn upward. Leading brokers are expected to continue outperforming the industry in 2019, achieving both performance and valuation growth. In terms of performance, according to data compiled by Databao, as of February 25, a total of 12 brokers have released performance reports. CITIC Securities (600030) reported the highest revenue last year, with operating income of 37.223 billion yuan. Haitong Securities (600837) ranked second with revenue of 23.859 billion yuan. In terms of net profit, CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 9.394 billion yuan last year, leading the industry, followed by Guotai Junan, with a net profit of 6.709 billion yuan. Additionally, some analysts believe that the sharp rise in broker stocks indicates further market gains are on the horizon. Lianxun Securities pointed out that in a favorable environment of supportive policies, positive economic expectations, and improving market conditions, the current rise in broker stocks is conducive to further market gains, and the evolution of the market will also aid in the recovery of brokers' performance. With the continuous release of policy dividends and the expectation of improving broker performance, the brokerage market is likely to continue advancing. Zhongtai Securities noted that, based on global experience, mature capital markets tend to become more institutionalized. Domestic brokers have already entered the "post-commission liberalization" era. The pilot registration system of the Science and Technology Innovation Board is improving capital market efficiency, and traditional investment banks are transforming. The ongoing opening of the market to foreign investors further drives institutionalization. The company believes that leading brokers with strong capital strength, qualifications for domestic and foreign derivative businesses, domestic direct investment platforms, and forward-looking international layouts will have stronger competitive advantages or "moats."